Every day we are warned about the imminent threats concerning climate, technology, economy, or society. “We are in an economic bubble,” or “Humanity faces mass-extinction in 20 years.” On the less alarmist side, we have pessmists warning us why something (e.g, the internet) will never work.
No doubt, there should be valid concerns about the future, but we never revisit these gloomy predictions, even when scores of them have failed to materialize.
I don't intend to make a political statement, however I want to track these claims to hold them accountable.
| Prediction | Status | Category | Made About | Made In |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Only enough U.S. oil remained to keep the nation’s kerosene lamps burning for four years. Source | Failed | Resources | 1800-99 | 1874 |
| U.S. Geological Survey: ' . . . "little or no chance" of oil being discovered in California"' Source | Failed | Resources | 1800-99 | 1885 |
| Geologist: "The peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years." Source | Failed | Resources | 1920-30 | 1919 |
| National Conservation Commission: The nation's natural gas fields are expected to run out within 25 years and oil fields by midcentury Source | Failed | Resources | 1940-50 | 1908 |
| Glacier National Park will vanish within 25 years' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1960-70 | 1936 |
| Eugene Ayers, Gulf Oil researcher: 'The production in the US would peak no later than 1960.' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1960-70 | 1953 |
| Denis Hayes: 'It is already too late to avoid mass starvation' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1960-70 | 1970 |
| The book The Population Bomb predicted worldwide famine in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation Source | Failed | Resources | 1970-80 | 1968 |
| Best-selling book, “Famine 1975! America’s Decision: Who Will Survive?”, predicted mass starvation by 1975 Source | Failed | Resources | 1970-80 | 1967 |
| ‘No End in Sight’ to 30-Year Cooling Trend Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1970-80 | 1978 |
| America will be subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980 Source | Failed | Resources | 1970-80 | 1970 |
| Dire Famine Forecast by '75 Source | Failed | Resources | 1970-80 | 1967 |
| Space Satellites show new Ice Age coming fast Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1970-80 | 1974 |
| Kenneth Watt: 'The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1970-80 | 1970 |
| Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years. Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1980-90 | 1969 |
| Ozone Depletion will cause additional 8,000 or higher cases of skin cancer by 1990 Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1980-90 | 1974 |
| By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1980-90 | 1970 |
| S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute: 'between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct in 25 years' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 1990-20 | 1970 |
| Robert Metcalfe: I predict the Internet, which only just recently got this section here in InfoWorld, will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse Source | Failed | Economy | 1990-20 | 1995 |
| Barbara Ward: "If all man can offer to the decades ahead is the same combination of scientific drive, economic cupidity and national arrogance, then we cannot rate very highly the chances of reaching the year 2000 with our planet still functioning and our humanity securely preserved." Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2000-10 | 1972 |
| Robert Shiller, Yale economist: "A real estate slump could make this little recession we're having turn into something that's quite drawn out and serious" Source | Correct | Economy | 2000-10 | 2001 |
| Liberalization of Indian Economy will make India suffer “lost decade” of growth Source | Failed | Economy | 2000-10 | 1991 |
| U.N. official Mostafa Tolba: “By the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible, as any nuclear holocaust.” Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2000-10 | 1982 |
| Scientist predicts a new ice age by 21st century Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2000-10 | 1970 |
| The world's oil could disappear by 21st century Source | Failed | Resources | 2000-10 | 1977 |
| Paul Ehrlich: If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000. Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2000-10 | 1969 |
| Dr. George Wald, Harvard biochemist: 'Civilization will end in 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2000-10 | 1970 |
| Science Digest: "The world's climatologists are agree that we must prepare for the next ice age" Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2000-10 | 1973 |
| By 2010, deaths related to food shortage would be double the normal death rate Source | Failed | Resources | 2010-20 | 1976 |
| David Jones, Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis: This [Australian] Drought May Never End Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2008 |
| Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update: "..the peak for oil production will occur much sooner, probably within the next decade." Source | Failed | Resources | 2010-20 | 2005 |
| Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy Source | Failed | Resources | 2010-20 | 2002 |
| Maldives completely under water in 30 years Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 1988 |
| New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 1989 |
| Al Gore: 'Entire North Polarized Cap will disappear in 5 years' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2008 |
| In 5-10 years, the Arctic will be free of ice Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2008 |
| No More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020? Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2009 |
| Facebook's $56 Billion Valuation and More Signs of the Tech Apocalypse. Source | Failed | Economy | 2010-20 | 2010 |
| Peter Wadhams, head of Polar Ocean Physics Group: "Arctic sea ice will disappear before 2020" Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2012 |
| World Without Bees Source | Failed | Extinction | 2010-20 | 2013 |
| Mark Cuban Predicts a Stock Market Crash if Trump Wins the White House Source | Failed | Economy | 2010-20 | 2016 |
| IPCC AR4 predicts that by 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2007 |
| Mark Cuban: This tech bubble is worse than the tech bubble of 2000 Source | Failed | Economy | 2010-20 | 2015 |
| IPCC 1990 Predicts Sea-Level Rise by 2.0-7.3 mm/yr Source | Correct | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 1990 |
| John Holdren: it is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020. Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 1987 |
| Dr. Paul Ehrlich: “Half of the populations and species in tropical moist forests would be extinct early in the next century [the 2000s] and none would be left by 2025" Source | Failed | Extinction | 2010-20 | 1981 |
| Professor Michael T. Clare: The price of oil is currently $110 a barrel and is only set to rise due to shrinking energy supplies and an intensifying wrangle over its distribution Source | Failed | Resources | 2010-20 | 2008 |
| UK Treasury: Vote to Leave will create a 'severe shock.' In two years, GDP will be 3.6-6% lower and unemployment will increase by 500,000-800,000 Source | Failed | Economy | 2010-20 | 2016 |
| 21 Indian cities will run out of ground water by 2020 Source | Failed | Resources | 2010-20 | 2018 |
| The Australian: 'Enjoy snow now . . . by 2020 it'll be gone' Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2010-20 | 2012 |
| Paul Krugman on Trump's Election: So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. Source | Failed | Economy | 2010-20 | 2016 |
| Michael Burry Predicts an Imminent Stock Market Crash Source | Failed | Economy | 2010-20 | 2017 |
| Book Mankind at the Turning Point: By 2025, 500M children could go hungry Source | Very Unlikely | Resources | 2020-30 | 1976 |
| Big Short' investor Michael Burry warns the 'mother of all crashes' is coming Source | Awaited | Economy | 2020-30 | 2021 |
| The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic will last until 2022, but its effects on society, politics and the economy will last through 2024 and beyond Source | Awaited | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| Children just aren't going to know what snow is Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2020-30 | 2000 |
| Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts Source | Correct | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| Global air traffic won't recover from COVID-19 until 2024, says airline body Source | Awaited | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| David Einhorn: ‘We Are Witnessing Our Second Tech Bubble in 15 Years’ Source | Awaited | Economy | 2020-30 | 2014 |
| The Tech Industry is in Denial, but the Bubble is About to Burst Source | Awaited | Economy | 2020-30 | 2015 |
| Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked Source | Failed | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: ‘Do the math,’ immunization specialist says Source | Correct | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19 Source | Correct | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| Donald Trump: Stock market will crash if he loses US election Source | Failed | Economy | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| Bitcoin Mining on Track to Consume All of the World's Energy by 2020 Source | Failed | Resources | 2020-30 | 2017 |
| Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years Source | Very Unlikely | Climate Change | 2020-30 | 2004 |
| Scottish skiing industry had no more than 20 years left.' Source | Very Unlikely | Climate Change | 2020-30 | 2004 |
| Jeremy Grantham: 'My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth, real McCoy, bubble of my investment career.' Source | Awaited | Economy | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| IHME: 'Coronavirus will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1' Source | Correct | Coronavirus | 2020-30 | 2020 |
| 50 Million Environmental Refugees By 2020, Experts Predict Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2020-30 | 2011 |
| Icecaps will be melting, sea levels will be rising ... If you don't like today's weather, says Tim Radford, then wait for the horrors we could face by 2020 Source | Failed | Climate Change | 2020-30 | 2004 |
| 40% of Indians will have no access to drinking water by 2030: NITI Aayog Source | Awaited | Resources | 2020-30 | 2018 |
| Internet as we know will end if net-neutrality is repealed. Source | Failed | Economy | 2020-30 | 2017 |
| Maurice Strong, in Where on Earth Are We Going?, projected that in 2031, “the human tragedy” would be “on a scale hitherto unimagined.” He wrote that the brightest prospect lay in forecasts that two-thirds of the world’s already diminished population might be wiped out." Source | Awaited | Extinction | 2030-40 | 1972 |
| Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at NYU: Bitcoin price will crash to zero Source | Awaited | Economy | 2030-40 | 2018 |
| U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global Warming Not Reversed by 2000 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2030-40 | 1989 |
| The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change,' Ocasio-Cortez says Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2030-40 | 2020 |
| Prince Charles: 'Only 8 years to save the planet' Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2030-40 | 2009 |
| French Foreign Minister: '500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos' Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2030-40 | 2014 |
| Marc Faber, Swiss investor: Hyperinflation in the U.S. is a certainty within the next 10 years Source | Awaited | Economy | 2030-40 | 2014 |
| Richard Smalley, Nobel Prize winner in chemistry: Oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining Source | Awaited | Resources | 2030-40 | 1996 |
| Three years of research show that by the year 2040 there will not be enough water in the world to quench the thirst of the world population and keep the current energy and power solutions going if we continue doing what we are doing today Source | Awaited | Resources | 2030-40 | 2014 |
| By 2040, according to federal government projections, extreme water shortages will be nearly ubiquitous west of Missouri Source | Awaited | Resources | 2030-40 | 2020 |
| Frightening climate change map shows Scottish cities under water in 2050 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2020 |
| Rising sea levels could wipe out mangroves by 2050 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2020 |
| Climate crisis: North pole 'soon to be ice free in summer', scientists say Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2020 |
| Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2019 |
| Climate Scientists to World: We Have Only 20 Years Before There’s No Turning Back Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2018 |
| Food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 Source | Awaited | Resources | 2040-50 | 2018 |
| By 2050, up to $106 billion worth of coastal property will likely be below sea level Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2017 |
| There could be 1.2B climate refugees by 2050 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2040-50 | 2022 |
| We've only got 10 years to save the planet, warns Prince Charles on the 50th anniversary of landmark speech he gave on plastic pollution and other threats to the environment Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2050-60 | 2020 |
| Over 143 million people could be forced to move by 2050 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2050-60 | 2018 |
| The environment in 2050: flooded cities, forced migration – and the Amazon turning to savannah Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2050-60 | 2019 |
| Amazon Rainforest Will Collapse by 2064, New Study Predicts Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2060-70 | 2021 |
| One-third of plant and animal species could be gone in 50 years Source | Awaited | Extinction | 2070-80 | 2020 |
| Present Rate of Cooling will Bring Glacial Temperatures in 100 years' Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2070-80 | 1972 |
| Cynthia Rosenzweig: "By 2080, when today's children are elderly, Tens of millions of additional people could go hungry. " Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2070-80 | 2007 |
| Cherry Blossom could be blooming a month early by 2080 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2070-80 | 2012 |
| 13 Million in US Could Become Climate Refugees Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2100-10 | 2016 |
| Climate change: Polar bears could be lost by 2100 Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2100-10 | 2020 |
| Climate change: UK could hit 40C 'regularly' by end of this century Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2100-10 | 2020 |
| 558 Mammal Species Could Go Extinct by 2100 as World Enters Second Wave of Extinction: Study Source | Awaited | Extinction | 2100-10 | 2020 |
| Mass extinction in the next 100 years, scientists warn Source | Awaited | Extinction | 2100-10 | 2020 |
| Climate change could cost the U.S. up to 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, study finds Source | Awaited | Climate Change | 2100-10 | 2019 |
Last Updated: July 02, 2022
Made by: @shubhamjainco